Matt Canavan’s ‘economic revolution’ is little more than a populist mirage – and Australians would pay the price | Patrick Commins

Nationals leader’s solution to the high cost of living is to force us to buy more expensive, locally made goodsMatt Canavan’s “economic revolution” is a populist mirage masquerading as an answer to a generational challenge that will define our prosperity in the decades to come.That challenge is: how do we create a new economy that is more resilient, secure and affordable, without undermining our prosperity?For the Nationals leader the answer is simple: scrap net zero and dig up more oil and coal; build more dams and “new cities”; slash migration and encourage more babies; and make more stuff here by protecting Australian industries from overseas competition.In other words, a mid-20th century “pioneer” solution for the 21st century.Canavan’s prescription would lead to massively more government debt as we embark on huge new public building works.Businesses that can’t stand on their own two feet would prioritise chasing subsidies and lobbying politicians over competing for customers.Canavan’s response to the high cost of living would be to force us to buy more expensive, locally made goods.If politicians can’t swallow the blowback from voters, as would be likely, then they would deliver the subsidies that lower the price – adding more to debt and deficits.The Nationals leader is intellectually dishonest when he pretends that his “economic revolution” will lift the country out of its productivity malaise.Last week at the National Press Club Anthony Albanese declared: “There is no security in maintaining a status quo that doesn’t work for people.”Then, in a swipe at the sepia-tinged populism of Andrew Hastie and Canavan, he said: “Anyone who pretends that the solution to housing or jobs or wages or health is to somehow to recreate the 1950s or 60s, or whatever time they imagine everything was hunky dory, is simply not being fair dinkum with the Australian people.”Globalisation delivered the lowest cost way to deliver the goods the vast majority of Australians enjoy, from toys and clothes to fridges and cars.The hidden cost was exposed by the pandemic, and now again by the Iran war: we have become overly reliant on the overseas supply of essentials including fuel, medicines and fertilisers.Those costs will now need to be built back into our system.None of this is easy but it demands an honest explanation of the trade-offs.Australians need to understand there will be a price to pay for economic security.Take the fuel crisis.The push towards the cheapest fuel led to the closure of six of the eight refineries we had at the start of the century.The remaining two are only operating because they are propped up by taxpayer subsidies worth billions.Now imagine a world where we refined half our fuel needs in this country, instead of importing the cheaper overseas stuff. It would deliver us a massively more secure fuel supply.But how much more expensive would petrol be at the pump?An extra 10 cents a litre? More?Are Australians prepared to cop that? Now repeat that same thought experiment across a range of industries we consider essential.But there are other areas where Canavan’s rhetoric comes closer to the mark.He slams Albanese as “Captain Status Quo”, and paints him as a timid leader unwilling or unable to grapple with the extraordinary changes being wrought around him.The prime minister, Canavan says, reckons he can restore Australians’ living standards with “one more go at ‘sensible tax reform’”.“Can anyone explain to me how scrapping the capital gains tax discount would revive living standards from the abyss they’ve fallen into?” he asked.“We won’t get revival by tinkering around the edges.”Holding up Albanese and the government more broadly as “free-market acolytes” who are slaves to a now-defunct neoliberalism is clearly over the top.But there is a question whether the governments’ actions, like its Future Made in Australia strategy, like its approach to reform in “bite-sized chunks”, are bold enough to meet the challenges from a frayed global order.Last week Albanese said the budget would be “our government’s most important” and “it will be our most ambitious”.It will have to be. If it’s not, more Australians will buy into Canavan’s mirage.Patrick Commins is Guardian Australia’s economics editor