U.S.-Iran Peace Talks May Collapse Before They Even Begin
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at new stressors to planned U.S.-Iran peace talks, a rare meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, and Djibouti’s all-but-predetermined presidential election.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance departed for Islamabad on Friday to participate in Pakistan-mediated peace talks to end the Iran war. But a new warning from Tehran amid Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon may upend negotiations before they can even begin.
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at new stressors to planned U.S.-Iran peace talks, a rare meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, and Djibouti’s all-but-predetermined presidential election.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance departed for Islamabad on Friday to participate in Pakistan-mediated peace talks to end the Iran war. But a new warning from Tehran amid Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon may upend negotiations before they can even begin.
The U.S. delegation—led by Vance as well as special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner—expressed cautious optimism ahead of Saturday’s dialogue. “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be positive,” Vance told reporters before boarding Air Force Two. At the same time, Vance warned that if the Iranians “try and play us, then they’re going find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.”
However, the likelihood of peace talks occurring is growing slimmer by the hour. On Friday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that “a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets” must occur “prior to the commencement of negotiations.”
Ghalibaf did not specify what those blocked assets might be, but experts suspect that they are related to Iranian funds frozen by U.S. and other Western sanctions. Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that “we now know where the Iranian leadership bank accounts are and those are being frozen.” Tehran maintains that one of its conditions for a peace deal is the removal of these sanctions.
Trump downplayed Tehran’s demands on Friday. “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways,” he wrote on Truth Social. “The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” One of Vance’s top priorities will be negotiating a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran stressed on Friday that it would “not give up [its] legitimate rights in any way” over the strategic thoroughfare.
Israel’s continued strikes on Hezbollah—an Iranian proxy group based in Lebanon—could also upset peace talks. Iran, Pakistan, and many Western governments have demanded that Lebanon be included in the two-week cease-fire agreed to late Tuesday. “Let’s not let Lebanon turn into a new Gaza,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said on Friday, as he urged the European Union to suspend its association agreement with Israel over what he described as the country’s “violations of international law.”
Trump has pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back Israel’s military operations in Lebanon to allow peace talks with Iran to occur.
Netanyahu announced on Thursday that Israel would hold direct talks with the Lebanese government next week, but he vowed to continue the attacks, saying, “There is no cease-fire in Lebanon.” Meanwhile, a senior Hezbollah official dismissed the idea of Israel-Lebanon talks, arguing that Beirut does not speak for the militant group.
A diplomatic approach. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Taiwan’s opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Friday. This was the first official meeting between the sitting heads of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party in more than a decade, as Cheng tries to position herself as a mediator of peace between Beijing and Taipei despite not representing the ruling Taiwanese government. Her KMT has long held pro-China leanings.
“Although people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait live under different systems, we will respect each other and move toward each other,” Cheng said on Friday, adding that “we will seek systemic solutions to prevent and avoid war.” Xi echoed that sentiment, expressing “full confidence” in the “larger trend of compatriots on both sides of the strait walking nearer, closer, and together.”
Yet Beijing has not ruled out using military force to seize Taiwan, which it does not recognize as a sovereign nation. Instead, China has bolstered military exercises around the island, forcing Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to pursue greater defense spending, including through massive arms deals with the United States.
Lai did not comment on Cheng’s meeting with Xi on Friday. However, in a social media post commemorating the 47th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act, he warned that “history tells us that compromising with authoritarian regimes only comes at the cost of sovereignty and democracy and will not bring freedom or peace.”
Inevitable outcome. Djibouti held a presidential election on Friday that analysts say has a forgone conclusion. Incumbent leader Ismaïl Omar Guelleh is expected to secure a sixth term after lawmakers scrapped presidential age limits last year. Fewer than 260,000 people are eligible to vote; Guelleh’s only opponent, Mohamed Farah Samatar, represents a party with no seats in parliament; and two of Djibouti’s other main opposition groups have boycotted the election, citing a government crackdown on political dissidents. Guelleh’s administration denies these allegations as well as accusations of other rights abuses.
Guelleh first took power in 1999 after succeeding his uncle, Hassan Gouled Aptidon, who ruled the East African country from its independence in 1977. In 2021, Guelleh won with around 97 percent of the vote. Several international organizations are monitoring Friday’s election, including the African Union, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and the League of Arab States. Initial results are expected this weekend.
Guelleh has campaigned on ensuring cohesion during a volatile geopolitical time. “Let us remember we have managed to maintain the stability of our country in an unstable region,” Guelleh said last month. “We have preserved peace when others have descended into chaos.” Djibouti sits along a key transit route in the Red Sea, making it a vital player for global shipping in the Middle East at a time when the Iran war has wreaked havoc on the industry.
Trump’s tariff gambit. A three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade considered the legality on Friday of Trump’s latest swath of global tariffs. Twenty-four mostly Democratic-led states as well as two small businesses are suing the White House in two separate cases, both of which argue that Trump cannot repurpose Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to address routine trade deficits.
In February, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the president does not have the power to impose sweeping levies during peacetime under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In response, Trump imposed new 10 percent tariffs under a different authority, Section 122, in the hope of circumventing the court’s decision. However, many lawmakers and legal experts maintain that this use of Section 122 is unlawful.
Section 122 allows the U.S. president to impose up to 15 percent duties “to deal with large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits” for as many as 150 days. Critics, though, argue that this is an archaic system used to address a crisis that is no longer an issue, as Washington has moved away from the gold standard and fixed exchange rate system and has instead embraced foreign capital and investment.
“The tariffs being collected even now are, again, illegal, and the importers who are paying them are being set up for ongoing hardship when they are inevitably entitled to a refund in the coming months,” J. Marc Wheat, general counsel at Advancing American Freedom, a conservative policy and advocacy group founded by former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, wrote in a friend-of-the-court brief.
Ghana on Monday officially withdrew from the Africa Energies Summit, set to be held next month in London. What reason was given for Accra’s decision?
A. The summit’s focus on the transition to green energy B. The expectation to discuss only private sector energy policies C. Concerns over the exclusion of African professionals D. Concerns over the inclusion of junta-led Sahel states
After 10 days of breathtaking photography and stunning feats of space exploration, Friday marks the finale of NASA’s Artemis II mission to the far side of the moon. Four astronauts (three Americans and one Canadian) are expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere and parachute into the Pacific Ocean around 8 p.m. EDT. All eyes will be on the Orion capsule’s heat shield to ensure a safe return; during a test flight in 2022, the spacecraft sustained an unexpected level of scorching and stress, requiring NASA to alter Artemis II’s descent trajectory. Fingers crossed for a smooth reentry!
C. Concerns over the exclusion of African professionals
Ghana’s Energy Chamber said the country was not a “spectator” in Africa’s energy industry and that the continent cannot be treated as a “marketplace for attendance” to the exclusion of Africans, FP’s Nosmot Gbadamosi reports in Africa Brief.
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Alexandra Sharp is the World Brief writer at Foreign Policy. Bluesky: @alexandrassharp.bsky.social X: @AlexandraSSharp
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